DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14483/2248762X.14910Publicado:
2019-06-30Número:
Vol. 10 Núm. 1 (2019): Enero - JunioSección:
Reporte de casoUso de árboles de decisión para medir el impacto de la incertidumbre operativa en el beneficio de centralizar la cadena de suministro
A decision-tree-based assessment of the impact of the operational uncertainty on the benefit of centralizing supply chain decisions
Palabras clave:
collaboration, decision trees, integration, supply chain management (en).Palabras clave:
árboles de decisión, cadena de suministro, colaboración, integración (es).Descargas
Resumen (es)
Mientras otros estudios tratan la relación entre la incertidumbre en la demanda y el beneficio del manejar centralizadamente una cadena de suministro, aquí se aborda el impacto de la incertidumbre operativa (productividad) de los eslabones sobre este beneficio. Usando árboles de decisión, el beneficio del manejo central se calcula como la diferencia entre la ganancia esperada de una cadena así administrada y la suma de las ganancias esperadas de los eslabones si decidieran individualmente. Resulta que la centralización es más redituable a más incierta la productividad, dado que la certeza en bajas productividades limita el provecho de la supresión de la incertidumbre en la demanda de los eslabones intermedios, mientras que la certeza en altas productividades causa que los eslabones, por separado y manejados centralmente, tomen las mismas decisiones. Se concluye que existe un fuerte efecto interactivo de las incertidumbres en productividad y en demanda sobre la ventaja de administrar centralmente la cadena.
Resumen (en)
Several studies deal with the relation between demand uncertainty and the worth of centralized chain management. This work, in contrast, explores the effect of the links’ operational variability on said benefit. Decision trees are used to model the entities’ decisions while the benefit of centralizing the chain management is measured as the difference between the expected profit of the centralized chain and the sum of the expected link profits when acting separately. The worth of centralized chain management increases the more uncertain the productivity is, as a certainty in low productivities decreases the benefit of suppressing the intermediate links’ demand uncertainty, while a certainty in high productivities causes that the links, acting separately, make the same decisions as when centrally managed. The results show that there is a strong, interactive effect of productivity and demand uncertainty on the benefit accrued by centralizing the chain decisions.
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