Publicado:

2024-06-23

Número:

Vol. 18 Núm. 1 (2024)

Sección:

Visión Investigadora

Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation

Evaluación de confiabilidad en sistemas complejos mediante la estimación actualizada de la tasa de fallas

Autores/as

  • Sebastián Aguirre-Vargas Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira
  • Mauricio Holguín-Londoño Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira
  • Germán A. Holguín-Londoño Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira

Palabras clave:

Electrical systems, Estimation, Failure rate, Reliability, Time series (en).

Palabras clave:

Confiabilidad, estimación, Series de tiempo, Sistemas eléctricos, Tasa de fallas (es).

Resumen (en)

The expansion and operation of the electrical network plays a significant role in ensuring service quality. Keeping the components operational requires an integrated, optimal and sustainable system focused on reliability analysis to ensure the efficiency and availability in complex systems. This paper explores a methodology to improve reliability analyses on power system components, using univariate data analysis and time series regression to develop an updated fault rate estimation. An exploratory data analysis is developed to understand the behavior and uncertain nature of the variables under study. The Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) model and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are implemented to analyze and estimate the behavior of the failure rate of some electrical distribution transformers over time, where the variability of reliability is observed as the failure rate varies over time, due to external factors.

Resumen (es)

La expansión y operación de la red eléctrica trae consigo grandes retos para garantizar la calidad del servicio. Mantener operativos los activos requiere de un sistema integrado, óptimo y sostenible enfocado en los análisis de confiabilidad para asegurar la eficiencia y disponibilidad de los sistemas complejos. Este documento, basado en un enfoque analítico, explora cómo mejorar los análisis de confiabilidad en los componentes de los sistemas eléctricos de potencia, mediante el análisis de datos univariante, así como metodologías de regresión de series temporales para desarrollar una estimación actualizada de la tasa de fallas. Inicialmente, se desarrolla un análisis exploratorio de datos para comprender el Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), suavizado exponencial simple (SES) se implementan para analizar y estimar el comportamiento de la tasa de fallas de algunos transformadores de distribución a lo largo del tiempo, donde se observa la variabilidad de la confiabilidad a medida que la tasa de fallas presenta variaciones en el tiempo, debido a factores externos.

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Cómo citar

APA

Aguirre-Vargas, S., Holguín-Londoño, M., y Holguín-Londoño, G. A. (2024). Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation. Visión electrónica, 18(1). https://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/index.php/visele/article/view/22415

ACM

[1]
Aguirre-Vargas, S. et al. 2024. Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation. Visión electrónica. 18, 1 (jun. 2024).

ACS

(1)
Aguirre-Vargas, S.; Holguín-Londoño, M.; Holguín-Londoño, G. A. Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation. Vis. Electron. 2024, 18.

ABNT

AGUIRRE-VARGAS, Sebastián; HOLGUÍN-LONDOÑO, Mauricio; HOLGUÍN-LONDOÑO, Germán A. Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation. Visión electrónica, [S. l.], v. 18, n. 1, 2024. Disponível em: https://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/index.php/visele/article/view/22415. Acesso em: 19 jul. 2024.

Chicago

Aguirre-Vargas, Sebastián, Mauricio Holguín-Londoño, y Germán A. Holguín-Londoño. 2024. «Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation». Visión electrónica 18 (1). https://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/index.php/visele/article/view/22415.

Harvard

Aguirre-Vargas, S., Holguín-Londoño, M. y Holguín-Londoño, G. A. (2024) «Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation», Visión electrónica, 18(1). Disponible en: https://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/index.php/visele/article/view/22415 (Accedido: 19 julio 2024).

IEEE

[1]
S. Aguirre-Vargas, M. Holguín-Londoño, y G. A. Holguín-Londoño, «Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation», Vis. Electron., vol. 18, n.º 1, jun. 2024.

MLA

Aguirre-Vargas, Sebastián, et al. «Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation». Visión electrónica, vol. 18, n.º 1, junio de 2024, https://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/index.php/visele/article/view/22415.

Turabian

Aguirre-Vargas, Sebastián, Mauricio Holguín-Londoño, y Germán A. Holguín-Londoño. «Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation». Visión electrónica 18, no. 1 (junio 23, 2024). Accedido julio 19, 2024. https://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/index.php/visele/article/view/22415.

Vancouver

1.
Aguirre-Vargas S, Holguín-Londoño M, Holguín-Londoño GA. Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation. Vis. Electron. [Internet]. 23 de junio de 2024 [citado 19 de julio de 2024];18(1). Disponible en: https://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/index.php/visele/article/view/22415

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