DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14483/23448393.21108Published:
2024-08-05Issue:
Vol. 29 No. 2 (2024): May-AugustSection:
Industrial EngineeringMethodology for the Selection of Risk Response Actions while Considering Corporate Objectives in the Metalworking Industry
Metodología para la selección de acciones de respuesta a riesgos considerando los objetivos estratégicos en la industria metalmecánica
Keywords:
fuzzy logic, Monte Carlo simulation, project risk management, risk response actions (en).Keywords:
lógica difusa, simulación Monte Carlo, gestión de riesgos de proyectos, acciones de respuesta a riesgos (es).Downloads
Abstract (en)
Context: Projects in metalworking companies are affected by risk. Proper risk management depends on the responses provided to improve the project plan. However, multiple potential actions may result in constraints due to multiple factors. The purpose of this article is to propose a hybrid approach to solve the problem of selecting risk response actions while considering strategic objectives, fuzzy logic, and simulation.
Method: First, 334 risks were identified through a literature review and a discussion with experts. These were then filtered, resulting in 70 operational risks. Subsequently, the ten critical risks were prioritized using the risk matrix. Then, using Monte Carlo simulation and correlation analysis, the activities most affected by the risks were identified. Finally, potential response actions were designed for each case, and fuzzy logic and quality function deployment were applied to evaluate them.
Results: The selected responses were framed within the strategic objectives, i.e., customer satisfaction, business profitability, and implementation of new technologies. This, while considering some corporate attributes that the actions had to meet finishing the project on time, having low costs, and meeting the scope. The selected actions had a better profile than others seeking to minimize time or costs.
Conclusions: EPCC projects are complex and often suffer from gaps in scope, time, and cost. Risk analysis and the selection of responses in the planning phase help to improve performance. This study developed a risk response plan for a project executed in Brazil. Risks were identified, classified, and mitigated using simulations, resulting in an 11-day reduction in the project’s estimated duration.
Abstract (es)
Contexto: Los proyectos en empresas metalmecánicas se ven afectados por el riesgo. Una correcta gestión de riesgos depende de las respuestas que se brinden para mejorar el plan del proyecto. Sin embargo, múltiples acciones potenciales pueden resultar en restricciones por múltiples factores. El propósito de este artículo es proponer un enfoque híbrido para resolver el problema de seleccionar acciones de respuesta a riesgos considerando objetivos estratégicos, lógica difusa y simulación.
Método: Primero, se identificaron 334 riesgos mediante una revisión de la literatura y una discusión con expertos. Estos fueron filtrados, lo que resultó en 70 riesgos operacionales. Posteriormente, se priorizaron los 10 riesgos críticos utilizando la matriz de riesgos. Luego, mediante simulación Monte Carlo y análisis de correlación, se identificaron las actividades más afectadas por los riesgos. Finalmente, se diseñaron potenciales acciones de respuesta para cada caso, y se aplicó lógica difusa y despliegue de funciones de calidad para evaluarlas.
Resultados: Las respuestas seleccionadas se enmarcaron en los objetivos estratégicos, i.e., satisfacción del cliente, rentabilidad del negocio, e implementación de nuevas tecnologías. Esto, teniendo en cuenta algunos atributos corporativos que las acciones debían cumplir: finalizar a tiempo el proyecto, tener costos bajos y cumplir con el alcance. Las acciones seleccionadas tuvieron un mejor perfil que otras opciones que buscaban minimizar tiempo o costos.
Conclusiones: Los proyectos EPCC son complejos y a menudo sufren de desfases en alcance, tiempo y costo. El análisis de los riesgos y la selección de las respuestas en la fase de planificación ayudan a un mejor desempeño. Este estudio desarrolló un plan de respuesta a riesgos para un proyecto desarrollado en Brasil. Los riesgos fueron identificados, clasificados y mitigados mediante simulaciones, lo que resultó en una reducción de 11 días en la duración estimada del proyecto.
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